What could go right?
An overly optimistic view of the world under the next Trump Presidency
This is a very optimistic view.
But first, a confession: I am not a Trump supporter.
I am also not a Harris supporter. As an Australian, my support (or lack of) has no meaning. As I was watching the results of the election, and as it was becoming apparent that Trump would win, my thoughts were that there are lots of Americans who truly believed that he could improve their lives, and “Make America Great Again.”
What if they are right. I certainly hope so.
But looking back on his previous term, I have to admit that there were some aspects during those 4 years that were... not too bad.
Depending on where you sit:
No New Wars: Trump did not start any new military conflicts.
Operation Warp Speed: Accelerated COVID-19 vaccine development and distribution.
Economic Growth Pre-Pandemic: Achieved low unemployment and strong economic growth before COVID-19.
Criminal Justice Reform: Signed the First Step Act to reform criminal justice and reduce mandatory sentences.
Tax Cuts: Passed the 2017 tax cuts to stimulate economic growth.
Judicial Appointments: Appointed three Supreme Court justices and many federal judges.
Trade Agreements: Renegotiated NAFTA, resulting in the USMCA for balanced trade.
Veterans Affairs Reform: Improved healthcare access for veterans through the VA MISSION Act.
Energy Independence: Boosted domestic oil and gas production for energy independence.
Focus on American Manufacturing: Promoted American manufacturing through tariffs on foreign goods.
These may not be good for everyone, but they were good for some. Like I said. Depending on where you sit.
As we move into the next 4 years, I would like to do an experiment, and imagine what could go RIGHT with his next term as the 47th President of the United States of America.
This could be fun.
For Americans and the United States
As the world either lamented or celebrated Trump's victory, I felt that those of us outside the U.S. had little say. It will affect all of us, but it wasn't our choice. Most Americans voted for Trump because they believed he would bring improvement. So, what might actually improve for them?
“The future is going to be incredible,” - Elon Musk
Economic Growth and Job Creation
One of the biggest promises of a second Trump presidency is economic growth. Trump’s focus on deregulation and tax cuts aims to create a more business-friendly environment, encouraging investment and entrepreneurship.
It was also mentioned that Elon Musk may be appointed the “Secretary of Cost-Cutting,” and do a Twitter-like clean up of the entire administration to reduce bureaucracy and wastage.
This could lead to a leaner administration that is more efficient and accountable to the American public. Musk’s background in technology and innovation could also inspire a culture of innovation and creativity, helping the administration save taxpayers’ money and build public trust.
It might just be the restructuring that the U.S. government needs to deal with all the problems created over the years.
That’s a good thing.
Trump’s commitment to bringing manufacturing jobs back to the United States could also revitalise the industrial sector. By encouraging, and possibly forcing, companies to re-shore their operations, there could be a resurgence in domestic production, creating jobs and strengthening supply chains.
It’s no secret that Trump wanted the U.S. to rely less on foreign manufacturing. If he is successful, this focus on self-reliance could lead to a more resilient economy, better prepared to handle global disruptions.
It could happen.
Innovations in Technology
“A Star Is Born: Elon.” - Donald Trump
In his victory speech, Trump expressed deep admiration for Elon Musk, referring to him as a “new star” and “super genius”. Trump believes that American innovation could drive advancements in technology and infrastructure.
By investing in high-tech industries such as AI, robotics, and space exploration, the U.S. has the potential to enhance its position as a global leader in technology. Public-private partnerships could also speed up the development of new technologies, fostering an environment of innovation that could benefit the economy and national security.
Remember The United States Space Force created on 20 December 2019? I have a feeling SpaceX/NASA partnership will play a significant role in the coming years.
Infrastructure Improvements
“要想富，先修路”
“If you want to get rich, you must first build roads.” - Xi Jinping
Trump has also previously pushed for infrastructure improvements and investments, including roads, bridges, and the internet. This could not only create jobs but also lays the foundation for long-term economic growth by improving connectivity across the country.
Energy Independence and Sustainability
“We have more liquid gold, oil and gas, than any country in the world.
More than Saudi Arabia, more than Russia.” - Donald Trump
While Climate activists all over the world cringed at those words, it is understandable that for Trump, energy independence has been a cornerstone of his “America First” policy.
Expanding domestic energy production in oil, natural gas, and nuclear energy could reduce the country’s reliance on foreign energy sources. Increased energy production could lead to lower energy costs for consumers and businesses, encouraging industry and boosting economic growth.
There is also a potential for a balanced approach that includes investments in renewable energy. Although Trump’s policies traditionally favoured fossil fuels, there could be opportunities to invest in nuclear energy and other clean energy tech. Liquid gold, no matter how much you have, will eventually run out. It is always wise to hedge your bets.
It’s a long shot, but if Trump diversified the energy mix, the U.S. could make strides toward a more sustainable energy future while maintaining energy independence. And the fate of the planet may be a little more secure.
We’ll just have to wait and see.
Social Stability and Community Support
“America First” also extends to issues at the community level. Trump’s previous initiatives to support veterans and tackle the opioid crisis could expand to provide broader community support. Remember, he made a lot of promises, many of which are about improving the lives of the common American.
He could increase funding for mental health services, addiction treatment, and programmes for various communities to improve social stability and quality of life for many citizens.
Trump’s emphasis on law and order could also lead to increased support for law enforcement and community safety programs. America has become very unsafe for many, and while this approach has been controversial, it is promising. Getting your house in order with a balanced approach to enforcement and community engagement could improve security in many communities.
Education and Workforce Development
To re-shore industries and manufacturing, you need people who can do the work. You can’t just “bring manufacturing back.” You need people.
“We want people to come into our country, but they have to
enter legally and with love for the country.” - Donald Trump
Despite the firm stance against immigration, every country knows it needs people. Australia is no different. The political “hoo-hahs” about the country being flooded with (illegal) migrants do not hide the fact that we all need talents. We need people.
Trump’s policies could try to bridge the enormous skills gap and prepare the workforce for the demands of a modern economy. You may want people to come into your country, but people will have to WANT to come into your country.
As part of re-shoring manufacturing, Trump could expand opportunities for technical education and on-the-job training to provide pathways to better-paying jobs, especially for those without a traditional college degree. This might reduce unemployment and strengthen the middle class.
“There’s no need even to have a college degree at all,
or even high school.” - Elon Musk
It’s a fine balance for every politician.
These prospects for the United States under a second Trump presidency look promising for Americans. Or at least for those who voted for him.
But what about the rest of us who did not vote? How could the next 4 years impact us? How could these domestic developments foster global stability, build new economic partnerships, and opportunities for world peace?
Optimistic Outcomes for Key International Regions and Issues
Australia, the United Kingdom and the Indo-Pacific
Strengthening Defence and Security Ties
Someone here in Australia said that the AUKUS deal is a gift to the U.S. and the UK. They are getting a lot of value; we are the ones paying the bill.
While the deal could play a role in strengthening ties between the U.S., UK, and Australia, the benefit is rather lopsided. For the UK, AUKUS means increased opportunities for defence contracts, technology transfers, and enhanced cooperation with the U.S. on security matters.
Post-Brexit, the UK is always looking for ways to reinforce its global standing, and a close partnership with the U.S. in defence and technology could help achieve that goal. The UK’s role in global security could be amplified by its participation in AUKUS, boosting its influence in the Indo-Pacific region and showing its capabilities as a key ally of the U.S.
For Australia, I can’t think of any positive outcome except maybe we might get a discount somewhere down the road.
Economic Opportunities and Trade Diversification
Right now, we (Australia) are worried about the insane 60% tariffs that Trump may impose on all Chinese goods, triggering a trade war that will reignite inflation and bring our economy to its knees.
But what if…
What if Trump pursues stronger economic ties with Indo-Pacific nations as a counterbalance to China’s influence? What if it was “60% tariffs on all Chinese goods, unless…” What if there was something China and the U.S. could agree on?
In January 2020, the Phase One Trade Agreement to address trade imbalances between China and the U.S. was made. China committed to buying an additional $200 billion worth of U.S. goods and services over 2 years compared to 2017. In return, Trump agreed to change some tariffs imposed on Chinese goods. Then COVID-19 happened and screwed everything up.
It could happen again. There is always the possibility of a deal.
For Australia, this could also be an opportunity to diversify trade relationships and reduce our economic dependence on China. We know we have to do it, eventually. If we worked more closely with the U.S. on trade initiatives, we could strengthen our economy, expand our export markets, and enhance our role in regional economic partnerships.
But not before Anthony makes amends, and Kevin deletes all his old social media posts on Trump.
China and U.S.-China Relations
Negotiated Trade Agreements
Despite the tensions in the U.S.-China relations over the decades, a second Trump presidency could present opportunities for a complete recalibration. Trump can also be unpredictable in a good way.
Trump’s focus on fair trade and reducing the trade deficit could lead to new negotiations aimed at establishing more balanced trade agreements. What is the point of reshoring manufacturing and industry unless it is to sell the goods? To access the world’s biggest market?
I am sceptical about all the political rhetoric during election time. Ultimately, if Trump wants to improve the lives of Americans, a fair and mutually beneficial relationship with China and the world is the best way to go.
So I believe there will be a deal.
And if successful, these could benefit both countries by opening markets, protecting intellectual property, and ensuring a level playing field for businesses on both sides.
Collaboration on Global Issues
“We seek to co-operate where we can and will disagree where we must.
And we will engage in our national interests.” - Penny Wong, Australia Foreign Minister, on China relations.
That’s a really good line. I think (I could be wrong) I heard the UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer used the same line recently.
It is also a sensible approach.
While competition between the U.S. and China will continue, there may be areas where collaboration is possible. Climate change (ok, don’t laugh), global health, drug trafficking, and cybersecurity are issues that require international cooperation, and Trump could, if he wants to, find common ground with China.
By engaging in selective collaboration (where he can), the U.S. and China could work together to address shared challenges, potentially leading to a more stable and cooperative environment.
Maybe he just needs to frame these issues differently.
The Middle East: Focus on Peace and Stability
Expanding the Abraham Accords
We know Trump has good relations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. So does Joe Biden. And Kamala Harris. And U.S. politicians on both sides. Let’s not pretend otherwise.
What is important is that Trump expressed his intention to end ongoing conflicts in Gaza. He mentioned his discussions with the Israeli Prime Minister about concluding military operations in Gaza.
I hope he delivers on this one quickly.
Trump’s previous success with the Abraham Accords laid the groundwork for improved relations between Israel and several Arab nations. An expansion of these agreements could bring more countries into the fold and foster greater regional cooperation.
So fingers crossed.
De-escalation
“I want to bring our troops back home.
It’s time to come back home.” - Donald Trump
Trump’s approach to the Middle East has often focused on reducing U.S. military involvement. Trump has previously criticised the long-term military engagements in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria, arguing that the U.S. had been involved in these conflicts for too long without achieving substantial results.
He has framed his withdrawal strategy as a way to honour the sacrifices made by service members and to shift focus towards rebuilding America.
This could lead to a de-escalation of conflicts in the middle east, as countries work toward self-sufficiency in defence and security. Hopefully, efforts to broker peace agreements, especially between Israel and Palestine, could lead to long-term stability, and a permanent 2-state solution.
For now, let’s hope that the war in Gaza, and Lebanon, will end quickly. And that Trump could help bring about a more stable and prosperous Middle East.
Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
Potential for Diplomatic Solutions
During his recent victory speech on November 5, 2024, Donald Trump reiterated his claim that he could end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours if re-elected. He emphasised his belief that he could achieve a resolution through negotiations with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
“I will have the deal done in one day. One day.” - Donald Trump
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has gone on for too long. Trump’s emphasis on direct negotiation and deal-making could open the door for new diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict.
By leveraging economic incentives and engaging in dialogue with both Russia and Ukraine, there is potential for a ceasefire or resolution that could bring much-needed stability to the region.
Another promise that we all hope he delivers on quickly.
Reducing NATO Tensions
“Obsolete” - Donald Trump, on NATO
Trump’s stance on NATO has been controversial, but if we look at it optimistically, it also presents an opportunity for European countries to take greater ownership of their own security.
In a multipolar world, encouraging NATO members to increase their defence spending and take on more responsibility makes sense. The EU should be strong and independent, and not another U.S. sidekick within their region. This shift could lead to a stronger, more cohesive NATO that is better equipped to address security challenges in the whole of Europe.
Conclusion
“You always have to think about the future.
You always have to look ahead.” - Vladimir Putin
So, it’s a long shot. And a long piece.
A rosy vision of what a second Trump presidency could bring to the U.S. and the world. Ambitious? Yes. Wishful thinking? Perhaps. Realistic? Possible.
If the next four years can deliver some, or even a fraction, of what we’ve imagined, the world might just become a slightly more stable, prosperous, and better place.
There’s no harm in hoping for the best. After all, Trump’s presidency is a fact. We can’t change the facts. We can only work with it.
Buckle up. It’s going to be an interesting ride!
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So considered, thoughtful and, yes, optimistic! Thank you, Francis, for reducing the anxiety level in my brain, for the moment anyway. I will follow your thoughts and his actions and hope for some alignment, or at least similarities.